Upstream Silicon Companies Raise Quotes, Polysilicon Prices Remain Stable [SMM PV Industry Chain Briefing Oct 28]

SMM, October 28: The followings are summary of recent dynamics in domestic PV industry chain.
Silicon Metal Prices
Last week, prices for some specifications of silicon metal increased. On Friday, in east China, above-standard #553 silicon metal was priced at 11,700-11,900 yuan/mt, #521 silicon metal at 12,000-12,200 yuan/mt, and #3303 silicon metal at 12,600-12,800 yuan/mt. Market sentiment for silicon metal was relatively positive, with strong performance in silicon metal futures. Silicon companies raised their quotes, while downstream buyers restocked as needed.

Production
Northern silicon companies maintained a high operating rate, with some production increases in October. Southern silicon companies saw some production cuts recently. Overall, October production is expected to see a slight increase MoM, while November production is expected to decrease MoM.

Inventory
Social inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of October 25, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 498,000 mt, up 1,000 mt WoW. Of this, general social warehouses held 154,000 mt, up 3,000 mt from before the holiday, and social delivery warehouses held 344,000 mt (including unregistered warehouse warrants), down 2,000 mt WoW.

Polysilicon Prices
Over the weekend, mainstream prices for N-type polysilicon were 40-44 yuan/kg, and mainstream prices for dense polysilicon were 35-38 yuan/kg. A new round of order signing is about to begin, with some small manufacturers already shipping mixed polysilicon in small quantities, causing a slight price drop. Major manufacturers continued to maintain stable quotes.

Production
October polysilicon production is expected to exceed 130,000 mt, with no significant production cuts planned by major manufacturers. However, major manufacturers in Sichuan and Yunnan may reduce production in November.

Inventory
Current polysilicon inventory remains at a relatively high level, with only a slight increase WoW. Some major manufacturers continue to maintain relatively high inventory levels.

Modules Prices
In the current module market, mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects were 0.65-0.73 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm modules were 0.66-0.74 yuan/W. Spot prices remained stagnant, with no quick rebound expected in the short term.

Production
The delivery demand for centralized procurement projects has started a small peak. Actual module production in October was lower than expected, and the overall production schedule for November is expected to remain flat or slightly decrease.

Inventory
Overall inventory levels remain at 1-1.5 months.

High-purity Quartz Sand Prices
Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable. Current prices for inner layer sand are 65,000-85,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand 35,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand 19,000-30,000 yuan/mt. Crucible companies have no procurement plans recently, mainly consuming their own raw material inventory.

Production
Supply side, domestic supply remained stable this week, while overseas supply continued to recover compared to last week, leading to an increase in supply.

Inventory
Domestic high-purity quartz sand inventory continued to increase this week. Crucible companies are expected to start a new round of procurement in November, with few transactions recently.

PV Glass Prices
3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 20.5-21.5 yuan/m², with slight price loosening.
3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 21.5-22.5 yuan/m², with slight price loosening.
2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 11.5-12.5 yuan/m², with slight price loosening.
2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was quoted at 12.5-13.5 yuan/m², with slight price loosening.

Production
As of October, a 650 mt/day kiln in Anhui underwent cold repair, and a 900 mt/day kiln in Chongqing also underwent cold repair. Supply is expected to continue decreasing.

Inventory
With new orders to be signed in November, there have been no recent transactions in the glass market. Most module companies are taking a wait-and-see approach, leading to an increase in glass inventory due to fewer transactions.